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美国急速赛车彩票:No fear of continued friction in trade frictions

时间:2018/4/9 17:57:16  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: A few days ago, the United States announced a tax bill of 50 billion U.S. dollars for China, and China immediately issued a 50 billion U.S....

A few days ago, the United States announced a tax bill of 50 billion U.S. dollars for China, and China immediately issued a 50 billion U.S. taxation bill to the United States. Trump responded that it intended to increase another 100 billion U.S. dollars. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it has responded to the US further Preparations for the escalation of operations and the preparation of very specific countermeasures have been made, and do not rule out any options.

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US stocks have become frightened by the trade dispute provoked by Trump. On Friday, the United States pointed out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard \u0026 Poor's 500 stock index, the Nasdaq composite index fell 2.34 over the previous trading day respectively. %, 2.19%, and 2.28%, of which the Dow once slumped more than 700 points during the session.

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The east side is raining when it is raining on the west. Without fear of the escalation of the trade war, the Hang Seng Index of closed higher on the 6th. On the first day after the holiday, as of the press release, the A-share market performed steadily. The military, Hainan, and communications sectors topped the list. With regard to the continuous fermentation of trade frictions, how does the public fund, which is the main institutional investor in the market, see?

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Wells Fargo Fund : Sino-U.S. trade frictions escalate, but need not be too pessimistic

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The U.S. announcement of the list of goods and the Chinese government’s announcement of possible tax increases for U.S. products mean that trade frictions between China and the United States have been further upgraded. However, the US list will also solicit public opinions, and the USTR will hold a hearing on May 15 to make a final decision; China has also expressed its “implementation of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods on the list”. Time will be announced separately." Therefore, the friction further escalated, but the increase in tariff boots has not yet landed. If the future is viewed in the most pessimistic situation, the addition of tariffs to each other will be a detrimental result for both China and the United States. In the short term, it will push the pressure of inflation to some extent. In the medium term, due to the exten- sibility of external demand in China. The space is large and there is no need to be too pessimistic.

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Judging from the amount announced so far, China’s US$50 billion accounted for 11.6% of China’s exports to the United States, accounting for 2.2% of China’s total exports. Calculating the 25% tariff imposed on this amount will have very limited impact on China’s economic growth and the profitability of listed companies.

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Historically, there have been “301 investigations” for China, which basically happened before entering the market in 2001. From the result point of view, the two sides eventually signed an agreement, but the final punishment was not implemented. The more probable future of the future is the Chinese side’s symbolic retaliation and negotiations and negotiations with the United States.

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美国急速赛车彩票:No_fear_of_continued_friction_in_trade_frictions

Judging from historical experience, during the consultation process, the United States will issue sanctions but will not immediately initiate sanctions. In the sanctions industry, companies with high proportions of exports to the United States and local high-tech companies will further benefit. (If China reduces its dependence on US technology transfer, it will inevitably increase policy support for related industries in the country.) Companies in the sanctioning industry that have a high proportion of exports to the United States may have a potential to kill but increase profits. The most pessimistic scenario in the future is the continuous trade war between China and the US—the probability of occurrence is low. For the A-share market, the future major innovation is the main direction, but the short-term attention to both the offensive and defensive of the pharmaceutical sector, as well as the military industry sector due to the trade friction and geopolitical event brought about by the incident.

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Wanjia Funds : Market risk appetite is expected to be boosted

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The Investment Research Team of the Ten Thousand Funds pointed out that it is expected that the risk appetite will gradually rebound in the coming period.

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Trade disputes between China and the United States may enter a period of gradual relaxation, because the market is currently worried about the trade war is more concentrated, is expected to be pessimistic, there is room for repair. With this premise, the future may be a situation where good news and bad news alternate. Whether it is the implementation of the U.S. $50 billion plan or the new $100 billion list, it will take time. This period will increase the negotiation space for both parties. If some time in the future, China and the United States will reach an agreement on a certain issue (such as intellectual property rights). , may ease market worries.

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On April 4, the United States announced a US$50 billion taxation bill to China, and China immediately issued a US$50 billion taxation bill to the United States. Trump responded that it intends to increase another US$100 billion. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it is ready to respond. The U.S. side has taken further preparations for the escalation action and has formulated very specific countermeasures. It does not rule out any options.

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Affected by this, US stocks fell sharply and China's bond market rose sharply. The continuous escalation of trade disputes between China and the United States is expected to be a major issue in the medium term. However, it is expected that the period of phased relaxation may usher in the next few weeks because it will take some time for both the US$50 billion plan and the new US$100 billion to come. Planning or implementation, the possibility of increased negotiations between the two sides will increase. Trump said that he will reach an agreement with China on intellectual property issues. As China announces a new round of reform and opening measures at the Boao Forum, market risk appetite is expected to be boosted.

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Golden Eagle Fund : The market's worries will gradually level off

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At the moment, regarding the Sino-US trade war (more precisely, it is still at the stage of “mouth war” between the two parties, saying that Sino-U.S. trade disputes or trade conflicts may be more appropriate, and the real trade war has not yet arrived, or may not really come), Has become a common concern and discussion focus of politicians, industry experts, various investors and even the general public. In 2018, the black swan that emerged from this accident will have a substantial degree of impact on the global economy, trade, politics, and even other important related parties. It is still difficult to determine accurately. Based on this, it does cause large uncertainty disturbances to the short-term global stock market .

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Personally think that even though the current situation of the two sides is rather like a "wink game" that is unwilling to be outdone, in fact, the greater truth behind the appeal lies in how to occupy a more favorable position in the next negotiation process so as to strive for better Trading arrangements. Of course, if major strategic misjudgments occur, the Sino-U.S. trade war does indeed have a scenario of truly opening or even preventing the expansion of the situation.

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For China, as we have repeatedly mentioned in the previous weekly review, in the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the pressure from the external environment has often become a major impetus and impetus for accelerating the internal reform process. magic weapon. At present, it is the feasible direction for all sectors to accelerate the promotion of greater reductions and tax cuts, effective reduction of administrative system ineffective expenditures, and promotion of a significant increase in the competitiveness of enterprises and the spending power of the people. In addition, China has a huge domestic market of 1.4 billion people, and the largest middle class in the world with a population of 400 million. In the past 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China, we have also established a relatively complete industrial system and a relatively complete upstream and downstream industrial chain. In comparison, the domestic market does have great potential and great resilience.

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In a broader perspective, as the world's most growth, explosive, and booming consumer market, China’s attractiveness to overseas capital, technology, products, etc., may not be greatly reduced due to the potential increase in Sino-US trade conflicts in the short-to-medium term. On the contrary, for competitive alternative companies in other countries overseas, it may be a good opportunity to properly or even perfectly intervene in the Chinese market or overweight China.

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In terms of investment strategy, overall, we continue to insist on several core judgements that have been proposed since the end of last year and are gradually being supplemented and improved in the near future:

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One is a relatively mature market, this year's emerging market valuation is more attractive, especially for US stocks VS. For A shares.

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The other is that the 1/9 market last year was the most deductive and the Baima stocks were unique. This year is a cautiously optimistic market for growth and value, and more stocks.

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Third, the short-term impact of the trade war is more reflected in the investor sentiment level. As the negotiation process between China and the United States is expected to open later, the market's worries will gradually level off, and investors’ concerns will return. Corporate earnings, growth, valuation, and other factors that are more directly related to the stock price. In the current continuous disclosure of annual and quarterly report data, the growth varieties with over-expectations and valuations that are already exceedingly attractive, as well as the value varieties that have continued to stagnate but whose risk-return ratio is more attractive, are expected to remain unchanged. Continue to be the focus of investment concerns.

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Fund Code fund referred the past year operating income fee
519772 Bank newborn vitality Flexible Allocation 56.50% 1.50 % 0.15% Purchase Opening Account Purchase
001112 Oriental Red China Advantage Mix 7_89456_121_6547 3_942.76% 1.50 % 1.50% purchase account purchase
000531 Soochow alpha Flexible Allocation 39.79% 1.50 % 0.15% buy ten thousand new accounts to buy
519196 Blue Chip Flexible Allocation 38.05% 1 .20% 0.12% Buy Account Opening Purchase
399011 sea Healthcare theme stock 39.05% 1.50 % 0.15% purchase account purchase
Source: Oriental Fortune Choice data , Galaxy Securities, as of the date: 2018-04-04

\u0026 nbsp; Risk Warning:

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This report was compiled and published by the Oriental Wealth Securities Institute based on market data. For reference only, the Oriental Fortune Securities Research Institute cannot guarantee the authenticity, accuracy and completeness of the data. The content of the report does not represent the views of the Fund of Heaven, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should therefore handle the risks at their own risk. Market risk, the investment need to be cautious.

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Shanghai Oriental Wealth Securities Research Institute Co., Ltd.


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